World Cup Predictions, Odds, Sports Betting, and Taxes

Something very interesting happened during the 2026 World Cup.

Spain, one of the favorites to win the tournament, tied Cape Verde 0-0.

Spain is the European champion. Cape Verde is playing in the World Cup for the first time. It is a small country with a population of just over 500,000 people.

Many people thought Spain would win easily.

But soccer is not that simple.

According to a New York Times article, one Polymarket user bet about $1 million that Spain would beat Cape Verde. The user probably expected Spain to win without much trouble and thought about $85,000 could be earned easily.

On the surface, it may have looked like easy money.

Spain was the stronger team.

Cape Verde was playing in its first World Cup.

There was a big difference in talent, experience, and world ranking.

But the result was a 0-0 draw.

The person who bet $1 million lost the money.

As the article title said, soccer makes fools of us all.

We think we know the result.

We calculate the odds.

We look at the rankings.

We look at the players’ names.

We listen to expert predictions.

But once the game begins, something completely different can happen.

Cape Verde’s players did not collapse. They defended against Spain’s attack until the end.

Their 40-year-old goalkeeper, Vozinha, made several crucial saves. After the game, he cried.

His grandparents had passed away before they could see him play on the World Cup stage. His mother also could not come to the United States because of the cost of getting a visa.

That is the World Cup.

A single game can include emotions, life stories, national pride, and the desperation of players. These things cannot be explained only by numbers and probabilities.

That is why the World Cup is so exciting.

But from a tax point of view, this story also gives us an important lesson.

Sports betting may start as entertainment, but the tax issue is real.

Under U.S. tax law, gambling winnings are taxable income. Winnings from sports betting, casinos, lotteries, horse racing, fantasy sports, and other gambling activities generally must be reported as income.

On the other hand, gambling losses are not automatically deductible.

For individual taxpayers, gambling losses can only be deducted as an itemized deduction on Schedule A. Also, the deduction cannot exceed the amount of gambling winnings.

Starting in 2026, the gambling loss deduction rule became even less favorable.

According to the 2026 Form W-2G instructions, only 90% of gambling losses may be deducted as an itemized deduction. Even then, the deduction cannot exceed gambling winnings.

In simple terms, gambling winnings must be reported as income, but gambling losses are only deductible in a limited way.

That is why good recordkeeping is important if you participate in sports betting.

You should keep records of your transactions, betting amounts, winnings, and losses.

The Spain vs. Cape Verde World Cup game shows us two important things.

First, sports results do not always follow predictions.

Second, sports betting may not end as simple entertainment.

The person who bet $1 million probably thought it was almost a guaranteed result.

But the soccer ball did not move according to his calculation.

Taxes can work the same way.

“I only gambled a little.”

“I also lost a lot of money.”

“I did not receive a tax form for the winnings.”

“It was through an overseas platform, so it should be okay.”

Thinking this way can create problems later.

Enjoy the World Cup.

But be careful with sports betting.

The tax issue on gambling winnings can become more real than many people expect.